In Guatemala, 59% of 96,367 tenders drew exactly one bid. The share is 39% in the cheapest quarter and 78% in the most expensive quarter, giving businesses a clear signal about where competition thins as contract size grows.
Single-bid exposure varies by buyer
Across 96,367 tenders, 59% received exactly one bid. That overall rate masks a concentration by buyer: the Instituto Guatemalteco de Seguridad Social is listed with 39,996 single-bid tenders, while the Ministerio de Salud Pública has 5,360. Those counts identify where a bidder may encounter a thinner field, but they do not explain why participation was limited in any individual procedure. A single bid, or a repeat win where one occurs, is not evidence of impropriety. For businesses, the practical reading is to separate buyer-level exposure from contract-level opportunity: a high count can reflect the volume of purchasing as well as the number of suppliers willing or able to respond. The figures here are counts of tenders and bids, rather than advertised values or awarded values.
Larger contract bands have fewer bids
The central pattern is a clear rise in single-bid tendering as contract size increases. The cheapest quarter had 39% single-bid tenders and a median of 7 bids. In the middle half, the share was 60% and the median was 1 bid; in the most expensive quarter, the figures were 78% and 1. The most expensive tenth reached 79%, again with a median of 1 bid. This is the direction identified in the figures: competition falls as contracts get larger. An overall rate alone can therefore hide a sharp difference between smaller and larger opportunities. The shares describe bid participation in each contract-size band, not awarded-value shares.
| Contract size | Single bid | Median bids | Measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheapest quarter | 39% | 7 | 24,091 |
| Middle half | 60% | 1 | 48,184 |
| Most expensive quarter | 78% | 1 | 24,092 |
| Most expensive tenth | 79% | 1 | 9,637 |
Size changes the route into a tender
For suppliers, the size effect changes where market-entry work matters. The cheapest quarter combines 39% single-bid tenders with a median of 7 bids, so broad outreach and bid preparation operate in a more contested part of the set. At larger sizes, 78% of tenders in the most expensive quarter and 79% in the most expensive tenth had one bid, while each has a median of 1. That pattern points businesses towards checking qualification thresholds, delivery capacity, financing, insurance and subcontracting options before deciding whether a larger tender is reachable; it does not show that any requirement caused a missing bid. Buyers can use the same split to test whether packaging, timetable or market engagement is narrowing participation. The evidence supports a competition diagnosis, not an allegation: a single bid can still be valid, and a repeat award alone proves nothing about conduct.
WHY IT MATTERS
Contract size is a practical screening signal. A supplier assessing market access should treat the 78% single-bid share in the most expensive quarter differently from the 39% share in the cheapest quarter, while recognising that the figures do not establish why participation was low.
Data: Otnox — live procurement intelligence across 56 markets. Basis: 96,367 GT tenders published in the last 180 days that state both a value and a number of bids, 2026-04-10..2026-10-07.
